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56 KBPS Modems
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There has been a lot of hype recently in computer magazines about new 56
kbps modems which utilize ordinary phone lines.  U.S. Robotics has
announced its "X2" technology, Rockwell International its "K56Plus"
technology, and Lucent Technologies its "V.flex2" technology, each of
which which will allow data transmission speeds of 56 kbps.
 
The 56 kbps transfer rate is only in the download direction (from ISP to
user). Uploads are at normal V.34 rates (28.8 or 33.6). Even so, this will
seem like a major speed increase for most Internet users because most
activities on the Internet involve data flow from the ISP to the user. Web
browsing, for example, which consists mainly of downloading files from
remote servers to the user's Mac or PC, will seem much faster. 
 
The new 56 kbps modems sound like the answer to every serious Internet
user's prayers, but there is a major catch.  For this system to work, an
ISP will need modems designed around one of the new protocols. The ISP's
customers will need modems capable of using that same protocol.  This is
where things get dicey.
 
Currently there is no industry-wide standard governing how 56 kbps modems
should work. Without such a standard, incompatibility among different
manufacturers' 56 kbps products is inevitable. If you have a USR X2 based
modem at one end of a connection and a Rockwell K56Plus based modem at the
other end, you won't achieve 56 kbps.  The best you can expect is a V.34
connection (28.8 or 33.6).
 
There is sure to be a battle to see which manufacturer's 56 kbps
technology captures the largest market share.  Will it be USR's X2,
Rockwell's K56Plus, Lucent's V.flex2, or something entirely different? 
Will the modem industry eventually adopt one of these as an industry-wide
standard, or will the final standard be something entirely different? It's
way too soon to tell. 
 
This leaves ISPs in a tough spot.  If an ISP wants to jump on the 56 kbps
bandwagon right now, which manufacturer's modems should he go with?  If an
ISP adapts one manufacturer's vision of how 56 kbps should work, and if
that does not eventually become the industry standard, then the ISP has
wasted a lot of money.  Some of the larger ISPs may be able to cover
themselves by setting up different modem pools with different numbers, one
for Rockwell K56Plus users, one for USR X2 users, and so on.  Smaller ISPs
won't be able to do this, so will be more likely to wait until an
industry-wide standard is established before jumping on the 56 kbps
bandwagon. 
 
The lack of a 56 kbps standard also spells trouble for home users.  You're
out of luck if you buy a USR X2 modem today but your ISP goes with
Rockwell's K56Plus standard tomorrow (or vice versa), or if you change
providers and the new provider's 56 kbps modems are not compatible with
yours. 
 
Here at BCPL we are watching the situation with great interest because
some of our customers are already asking about 56 kbps connections.
We don't have money to waste on new modems that may become obsolete
when/if an industry-wide standard for 56 kbps is adopted.  Currently our
intention is to wait for a 56 kbps standard, or at least until it becomes
clear that one manufacturer's 56 kbps protocol is dominating the market.
 
If you would like to keep up to date on developments in the 56 kbps
modem battle, we recommend the following Web sites:
 
http://elaine.teleport.com/~curt/modems.html (Curt's high-speed modem FAQ)
 
http://users.aimnet.com/~jnavas/modem/faq.html (The Navas 28800 Modem FAQ)
 
If you have questions about this or about anything else related to your
BCPL Internet account, please contact the BCPL Internet Help Desk by phone
(410-887-3297) or e-mail (oz@mail.bcpl.lib.md.us).